The United States has given its support to Israel’s announcement over the weekend that it is suspending further humanitarian aid to Gaza indefinitely after Hamas rejected a U.S. proposal to extend the expired Phase 1 ceasefire by 50 days, through the end of Pesach. The proposal also calls for the immediate the release of half of the 59 hostages still being held in Gaza, 24 of whom are men, believed to be still alive, and the remaining 35, including three women, who are believed to be dead. Two of the living hostages and three of the dead ones are foreign nationals.
Israel has accepted the ceasefire extension that was proposed by President Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, under which all remaining hostages would also be released by Hamas, if and when an agreement is reached on a “permanent” ceasefire. Israel also said that it would not permit the humanitarian shipments to Gaza to resume until Hamas agrees to the extension of the ceasefire as well as the immediate return of half of the hostages.
According to Israeli media reports, the Israeli government is considering cutting off electricity and water supplies to Gaza. The IDF may also launch precision targeted air strikes on remaining Hamas assets and block the entry of more temporary shelters and heavy machinery for rubble clearance. It is also expected to continue indefinitely the armed Israeli presence along the Philadelphi Corridor between Gaza and the Egyptian Sinai desert in order to prevent the smuggling of more arms to Hamas.
In a statement rejecting the Witkoff proposal, Hamas declared: “With the completion of the first phase of the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement, we reaffirm our full commitment to implementing all terms of the agreement across all its stages and details. We call on the international community to pressure Israel to fully commit to the agreement and immediately enter Phase 2,” which includes starting negotiations on a permanent end to hostilities, completing the Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, the beginning of Gaza’s reconstruction, and a prisoner-hostage exchange.
ISRAEL READY TO RESUME FIGHTING IN GAZA
In light of Hamas’ rejection of the American proposal, a spokesman for Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Hamas has only “a few days” to agree to the ceasefire extension before the Israeli cabinet convenes to “decide on the next steps,” which presumably include the resumption of full-scale IDF military operations against Hamas in Gaza.
Israel has the right to resume military operations in Gaza if continued attempts to negotiate with Hamas prove to be ineffective, as authorized by a side letter from the Biden administration, which has been endorsed by the current Trump administration.
Netanyahu’s office released a statement saying: “With the conclusion of the first stage of the hostages deal and in light of Hamas’ refusal to accept the Witkoff framework for the continuation of the talks, to which Israel agreed, Prime Minister Netanyahu decided [that] entry of all goods and supplies to the Gaza Strip be halted [immediately].”
President Trump’s National Security Council spokesman, Brian Hughes, told Axios that “Israel has negotiated in good faith since the beginning of this [Trump] administration to ensure the release of hostages held captive by Hamas terrorists. We will support their decision on next steps given Hamas has indicated it’s no longer interested in a negotiated ceasefire.”
In rejecting the proposed ceasefire extension, Hamas stated: “The only way to bring back the hostages is to complete the agreement” by moving to Phase 2 of the original ceasefire agreement.
Hamas official Osama Hamden accused Israel of “pushing to return things to square one and overturn the agreement through the [Witkoff extension] alternatives it is proposing.”
Hamas also declared that it rejects any non-Palestinian governance in Gaza and opposes the presence of any foreign peacekeeping forces in Gaza.
Since the Phase 1 ceasefire took effect in January, it has been obvious that Hamas has been able to largely replace the loss of thousands of its fighters since the October 7 attacks with new recruits. Hamas has also been using its de facto control over the distribution of the international humanitarian aid that was arriving in Gaza to reassert its governing authority there, which is one of the reasons why Israel has stopped the aid deliveries.
ISRAEL’S NEXT ATTACK ON GAZA WILL USE MORE TROOPS
The Washington Free Beacon reported last week that the IDF was preparing to resume the war in Gaza in four to six weeks. According to that report, the IDF plan is to use more than 50,000 soldiers to stage a “ruthless ground campaign” to reconquer the entire Gaza Strip at one time while focusing on terrorist-heavy areas. The only way the attack could be prevented would be if Hamas’ leadership agrees to free hostages or to disarm itself and go into exile.
The plan calls for the civilian population of Gaza to once again be relocated to designated humanitarian zones under strict Israeli military control, and they will be the only parts of Gaza that will continue receiving shipments of humanitarian aid.
According to Professor Kobi Michael of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University, “This will prevent Hamas from continuing to steal all the humanitarian aid and will increase pressure on the group through the local population.”
This more aggressive assault plan involving many more troops than previous IDF operations in Gaza, is intended to be decisive in finishing off Hamas. It was developed by the incoming IDF Chief of Staff, General Eyal Zamir, who takes office this week. It will begin with a heavy aerial bombardment, followed by a three-pronged ground invasion of north, central, and south Gaza by IDF troops that is expected to take up to six months to achieve the complete destruction of Hamas.
Israeli military commentator Hezi Nehama predicts, “We’re going to see four to five divisions simultaneously attack in the north, in the center and in the south, to occupy every area and clear out the enemy. It will look different than what we saw in the war until now.”
According to Nehama, the ceasefire that is now in effect in South Lebanon has enabled the IDF to redeploy some of the forces that had been stationed in the north to provide the additional manpower needed to attack all three sections of Gaza at the same time, leaving Hamas forces with nowhere safe to go.
TRUMP HAS GIVEN ISRAEL A GREEN LIGHT IN GAZA
President Trump has apparently given Netanyahu the green light, and, unlike the Biden administration, he has not put any restraints on Israel’s next combat operations against Hamas in Gaza.
In a video message, Prime Minister Netanyahu thanked President Trump again for his strong support of Israel and reiterated that Israel has accepted the U.S. proposed ceasefire extension.
According to a Jerusalem Post report, full-scale IDF operations in Gaza could resume as early as next week because negotiations with Hamas over the release of more hostages have stalled. “Nothing is currently moving on this front. Hamas has neither accepted nor rejected the Witkoff proposal,” sources familiar with the progress of the negotiations said.
The report also says that unnamed officials have suggested that “even without accepting the Witkoff initiative, Hamas might agree to release additional hostages in the near future in exchange for the release of terrorists from prison and the entry of caravans and humanitarian aid.”
“The Israeli government needs to decide what will be negotiated with Hamas and what they will receive in exchange for the release of hostages in the coming weeks,” a source said. “Hamas’ agreement to release more hostages depends on the answers to these questions.”
Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that Israel has agreed to a request by the mediators to allow a few more days of negotiations.
But Katz warned that “If Hamas does not release the hostages soon, the gates of Gaza will be locked, and the gates of gehinnom will be opened. We will return to fighting, and they will face the IDF with forces and methods they have never encountered before.”
CALL-UP AUTHORITY FOR IDF RESERVES EXTENDED
Another indication that a resumption of hostilities in Gaza is imminent is the Israeli government’s approval of an extension of the Knesset legislation allowing the call-up of up to 400,000 IDF reservists, some of whom would be needed to resume the operations against Hamas.
The European Union condemned Hamas’ refusal to extend Phase 1 of the ceasefire, but also warned Israel about the “humanitarian impact” of Israel’s decision to stop the aid shipments to civilians in Gaza that Hamas has been intercepting.
Qatar issued a strong condemnation of Israel’s move, calling it a violation of the ceasefire agreement and humanitarian law. Egypt also criticized the Israeli decision. “Using aid as a weapon of collective punishment and starvation in Gaza can’t be accepted or permitted,” said Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.
THERE IS NO HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN GAZA
But both the EU and Qatar have ignored the fact that since the Phase 1 ceasefire began on January 19, 25,200 aid trucks carrying food, water, and medicine have been permitted by Israel to enter Gaza, in addition to more than half a million tents and 2,100 fuel tankers. Israeli officials estimate that thanks to those shipments, Hamas has hijacked and stored enough supplies to sustain Gaza’s population for four to six months. That means that, despite the Israeli-ordered suspension of deliveries, there is no threat of starvation or collective punishment facing Gaza’s civilians, unless Hamas refuses to release the supplies it already has on hand.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said at a press conference last Sunday, which was the day that the Phase 1 ceasefire was originally set to expire, “We are prepared to continue negotiations, including for the second phase — based on our principles, in exchange for the release of hostages. It is important to emphasize that we have fulfilled our commitments up to the very last day.”
The foreign minister added that Israel was willing to approve the extension of the truce, but, “we wouldn’t do it for free. There is a side letter from the Biden administration that explicitly states that there is no automatic transition between phases.”
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that Arab leaders in the region are now struggling to come up with alternatives to President Trump’s suggestion to temporarily remove the Palestinian civilians and the remnants of Hamas from Gaza so that it can be cleared and rebuilt into a luxury vacation spot.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO HAMAS?
Any viable alternative must also answer the difficult question of what to do with Hamas if it is still standing when the fighting in Gaza is over. As the article notes, part of the problem is, “if Hamas remains in Gaza, Israel isn’t willing to end the war, and Gulf Arab states like the United Arab Emirates aren’t willing to fund its reconstruction.”
According to William Wechsler, a former Pentagon senior counterterrorism official, Hamas would be in a position to spoil any reconstruction plans. That is why any new proposal put on the table “cannot just be a reconstruction plan but a political and security plan [as well],” he said.
Arab leaders met this week in Cairo to come up with a postwar plan for governing Gaza without Hamas participation that both Israel and the U.S. would accept, but until now, they have been unable to agree on a unified approach to the problem. They also can’t seem to agree on whether or not to create an Arab peacekeeping force to help stabilize postwar Gaza.
ARAB LEADERS CAN’T AGREE ON GAZA’S FUTURE
According to the Wall Street Journal report, “Saudi Arabia and Qatar back an Egyptian plan that would see Hamas disarm but play a political role running postwar Gaza along with other Palestinian factions.” The plan would house Gaza’s civilian population in mobile homes that could be moved around to various “safe zones while the debris is cleared and water and electricity services are restored.”
The plan also calls for Hamas and the Palestinian Authority “to form an independent committee that would run Gaza while it is being rebuilt,” despite the long history of animosity between the two groups and the failure of every plan that called for them to peacefully share power. Another non-starter for Hamas is Egypt’s demand that it “hand over missiles and rockets that could be used to attack Israel. . . [that] would be stored at depots under Egyptian and European supervision until a Palestinian state is established.” (Don’t hold your breath.)
On the other hand, the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), which is expected to provide a lot of the financing needed to rebuild Gaza, “wants Hamas completely out of the strip and is leaning on [Hamas’] rival, the Palestinian Authority, to govern it. . .
“Instead [the UAE] wants a reformed Palestinian Authority to be recognized as the sole legitimate governing body for Gaza. . . [an option] opposed by Qatar.”
And so the long search for peace in the Middle East goes on and on.
