Is history about to repeat itself in the Middle East?
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to urge President Trump, in a visit to the United States this week, to back a preemptive strike on Iran’s ballistic missile program, which intelligence reports say is in the process of being rebuilt.
While some experts downplay these reports, insisting they are part of a propaganda campaign to give Tehran leverage, other Israeli officials are taking them seriously, noting that Tehran began conducting missile tests in different cities this Monday, the Jerusalem Post reported.
Israel has reportedly warned the Trump administration that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may be using missile testing as cover to launch an attack on Israel.
Even if an attack is not imminent, Netanyahu is expected to argue that swift, decisive action is imperative before Iran has repaired its air defense systems that were demolished in the 12-Day War this past June.
In an interview with the Post this week, Sen. Lindsey Graham, addressed the Iranian threat, saying, “We cannot allow Iran to produce ballistic missiles because they could overwhelm the Iron Dome. It’s a major threat.” He added, “Anything that weakens Israel weakens America.”
Iran’s missile-production industry was believed to be crippled in the June war. In addition, the United States in Operation Midnight Hammer blasted through miles of concrete with B-2 bunker-buster bombs to take out Iran’s underground nuclear enrichments sites.
Iran retaliated by launching over 500 ballistic missiles and around 1,100 drones at Israel, killing 32 people and wounded over 3,000.
At the time, Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the threat from Tehran neutralized: “We destroyed Iran’s missile‑manufacturing industry,” he announced. “We struck dozens of missile factories … we removed the threat of thousands of ballistic missiles aimed at Israel.”
NBC quoted White House spokesperson Anna Kelly last week repeating the U.S. government’s assessment that “Operation Midnight Hammer totally obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities,” and “as President Trump has said, if Iran pursued a nuclear weapon, that site would be attacked and would be wiped out before they even got close.”
Yet, in the war’s aftermath, U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments of the damage done to Iran’s nuclear and defense capabilities have somewhat shifted and are not wholly conclusive. Some reports point to years of disruption and others indicate only a short-term setback.
Tehran Restocked At Least Half of its Missile Stockpile
Before the war erupted in June, Israeli intelligence estimated Iran held roughly 2,700 missiles. Officials now believe the regime has already restored at least half of that stockpile and is working to expand it beyond pre-war levels, reports JNS.“This renewed industrial effort coincides with a major push to expand the range of Tehran’s missile arsenal,” the article said. Recent reports from opponents of the regime suggest that Tehran has been quietly expanding the range and impact of several missile types over a period of years, but has recently put many of these long-term projects “into over-drive.”
According to intelligence sources, the reconstruction has been underway since the end of September, largely thanks to a steady flow of sodium perchlorate—rocket fuel—from China to Iran, despite renewed international sanctions making this action illegal.
Western intelligence sources estimate that since Sept. 29, two to three days after the sanctions were reinstated, Iran has received 10 to 12 maritime shipments totaling about 2,000 tons of sodium perchlorate, the article said. The rationale provided by China is that the fuel is “dual-use”—it is also needed for Iran’s space program.
Investigators have tracked the recent shipments from Chinese ports to Bandar Abbas, a central location in Iran’s missile production infrastructure. These transfers represent one of the largest movements of rocket-fuel materials into Iran in recent years, the article noted.
Israeli analysts say Tehran is now intent on increasing its missile arsenal, aiming to restore capacity to produce 500 missiles a month, ahead of a future war with Israel.
According to the Washington Post, Netanyahu and Trump had discussed a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear program earlier this year, after Trump took office. At a meeting in February, Netanyahu reportedly presented Trump with four options on what an attack on Iran could look like.
The four scenarios, according to the Post, were an exclusively Israeli attack, an attack led by Israel with minimal US help, full collaboration, and a US-led assault. The article speculated that Netanyahu may present a similar set of options to Trump at his residence in Florida when the two meet on Dec. 29.
Could Iran be Just Posturing?
Some analysts say Iran is not seeking an immediate large-scale confrontation but is instead trying to project that image to deter aggressive action by Israel. They say the regime is posturing, echoing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s bravado in June as he mocked Trump’s claims of having destroyed Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and vowed to continue the nation’s program.Maj. Alexander Grinberg, an Iran expert at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, in an interview with JNS cast doubt on the Iranian threat, suggesting that it’s more about bluster than anything else.
“The Iranians may be rebuilding their missiles, but they have done nothing to restore their air defenses, so Israel can just repeat the same pattern of attack with no ability for Iran to thwart it,” he said.
Speaking to JNS, Grinberg noted that much of the recent reporting in Western media about Iranian readiness for a military confrontation with Israel was more likely “Iranian messaging being fed to Western sources than an accurate representation of reality.”
“There is a long way from these chemicals [from China] to become full ballistic missiles; it doesn’t mean in any way that war is imminent.”
On the other hand, satellite imagery shows that Iran has been rebuilding key fuel production facilities destroyed in Israeli strikes, a Times of Israel article reported. The imagery revealed that buildings damaged by Israeli air strikes had either been rebuilt or were undergoing reconstruction at both the Shahroud and Parchin missile sites.
Several production halls are being reconstructed there, “including structures that previously housed the mixers used to convert chemical inputs into solid rocket fuel.”
Those mixers were among Israel’s primary targets during the 12-day “Rising Lion” operation in June, the article said, because they are essential for producing the fuel used in long-range missiles, including those capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Skeptics Cite Missing Key Component
Grinberg disputed the military assessment, saying that putting too much weight on the satellite images is a mistake. “There are some photographs from missile and nuclear sites showing that there is activity, but that doesn’t definitively prove anything about the pace of missile production,” he said.
“I expect that there is a very primitive influence campaign run by Iran that is being recycled in American media. This clearly serves Iranian interests of signaling their bellicosity, but it is closer to propaganda than reality,” the military analyst said.
He also noted that the mixers comprise a crucial component in the manufacture of rocket fuel but without outside assistance, those mixers can’t be rebuilt.
Other military experts are as passionately convinced of the very opposite: that evidence of Iran re-arming signals the inevitability of another military confrontation, with China likely supplying the needed ingredients for Tehran to make this possible.They also believe Iran’s highly enriched uranium either been buried under rubble or moved to a secure location, a JNS report said.
Lack of reliable information over the status of the enriched uranium is accelerating talk of a likely “round 2 to the Israel-Iran conflict.” A public broadcaster for Kan, an Israeli news station, quoted an unnamed official saying that Israel’s goal is “to topple the Iranian regime before the end of President Trump’s term.”
‘Obsession with Developing a Nuclear Bomb Still Beats in their Hearts’
David Barnea, the outgoing head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency, told JNS that the Islamic Republic “will break out as soon as it is allowed” because “the obsession with developing a nuclear bomb still beats in their hearts.
He and other former and current security officials caution that another confrontation is not a distant possibility but almost certainly around the corner.
The dispute over whether Iran is posturing or planning for war has spilled over into rancorous debate between the Israeli Defense and Finance ministries over the 2026 state budget. Defense officials have been warning that inadequate budgeting for advanced warning systems, intelligence capabilities, air defenses and offensive strike platforms will leave Israel unprepared and deeply vulnerable.
[The truest assessment, of course, appears nowhere in any military, security or media report: all the warning systems, interceptors, defense maneuvers and offensive strikes are worthless im Hashem lo yishmor ir, unless the One Above grants His protection. In the meantime, are Israeli officials being unduly alarmed and ‘crying wolf’? Or are skeptics like Grindberg burying their heads in the sand, ignoring the warning signs? What would the ghosts of October 7 say?
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Iranian Spy-Recruiting Operation Ensnares Israelis
A jarring report in Israel Hayom revealed an Iranian spy-recruiting operation has targeted thousands of Israelis through social media, and through recorded messages sent to their mobile phones.
Israeli security officials have confirmed that Tehran over the past year has been carrying out widespread recruitment efforts online aimed at all sectors of Israeli society, the article said.
The effort appears to be part of a mass recruitment scheme by Tehran to gather intelligence on Israel’s alleged nuclear and military sites, as well as key Israeli figures such as defense officials and top scientists.
The operation sends text messages and recordings inviting Israelis to work with Iranian espionage agencies and promising digital payments (cryptocurrency).
The text messages, written in English, read: “Hello, this is Iranian intelligence. You can help us and we will help you in return for money.” The recordings say “Hello, Iranian intelligence is looking for official agents — competitive salary, comprehensive security. Find us on Telegram and the internet.”Israel’s National Cyber Directorate has launched a broad public campaign highlighting the dangers and consequences of establishing contact with hostile Iranian elements. The agency warned people not to answer calls from numbers that began 03-6817 and 03-3067, and to disconnect immediately if answered inadvertently.
Police said that people who received the calls should immediately block the number and report it to law enforcement authorities.
Those Who Succumbed
Investigations and indictments related to more than 30 cases of Israelis allegedly spying for Iran have been exposed by the Shin Bet security agency, the Israel Hayom article said.
According to the indictments, Israelis who established contact with Iranian handlers often began with tasks they perceived as benign, such as photographing streets and signs, for which they received attractive payments.
Over time, however, they were directed to carry out serious security-related missions. These included photographing the streets near the homes of public figures, locating hospitals where prominent individuals were being treated, attempts to obtain weapons, and even facilitating assassination plots.
According to the article, the majority of those who succumbed to temptation were ‘ordinary’ civilians looking for some extra cash. They either rationalized their traitorous conduct as harmless, or simply didn’t care. Their only remorse was over getting caught.
One case involved Yosef Ein-Eli, a hotel worker charged with sharing photos of tourist sites and gathering intel on officials for Iranian handlers. Several indictments were filed against IDF reservists for passing classified data, including on the Iron Dome system, for money.
High-Stakes Espionage
In two of the most sensational cases, three men were arrested in June for spying for Iran during the 12-Day War, the Jerusalem Post reported.
On the night of June 14, authorities arrested Yoni Segal, 18, and Omer Mizrahi, 20, from Tiveria. The two had been in contact with Iranian agents over a few months. According to the indictment, the Iranians initially posed as left-wing protestors and asked the Israeli recruits to carry out simple tasks, such as writing “Bibi is a dictator” on a placard and burning it, in exchange for cryptocurrency payments.
After several assignments, the Iranians escalated—ordering Segal and Mizrahi to obtain burner phones, mask their identities, and undertake more advanced espionage missions.
The two complied, passing along footage of shopping malls including the Grand Mall in Haifa, Big Fashion in Tiberias, Dizengoff Center in Tel Aviv, and the Ichilov Hospital,” the article detailed. “While they were at these specific locations, the two sent their live location to the agents who initiated more instructions.”
The Israelis then reported on the number of security guards, stores and shops, surveillance camera locations, entry points and more.
The same day Mizrahi and Segal were taken into custody, the Beersheba District Court filed an indictment against Mark Morgan Pinsky, 33, a resident of Moshav Hamra in the Jordan Valley, for carrying out tasks on behalf of Iranian foreign agents for payment.
According to the indictment, a foreign agent identifying himself as “Alex” had contacted the defendant via a Telegram group and offered him 2,000 shekels per day for performing various tasks.
Pinsky agreed and, when suspicions arose that “Alex” was an Iranian agent, Pinsky allegedly replied that “it doesn’t matter and he doesn’t want to know.” The agent then asked him to send a photo of his ID card and verification videos, in return for which he was paid.
In one case, he arrived at a particular location where a grenade was hidden, the police said in a statement. “He understood that the grenade was designed to hurt civilians.” He also filmed the interception of a missile launched at Israel.
The Shin Bet reported a rise of more than 30% in the number of arrests and investigations related to Israelis involved in Iranian espionage between 2024 and 2025. The growing number of Israelis charged with espionage even prompted authorities to open up a new wing for them in Haifa’s Damon prison, the Israel Hayom article stated.
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U.S. Treasury Targets Iran’s “Shadow Fleet” for Transporting Illicit Petroleum
The U.S. Department of the Treasury imposed new sanctions against Iran last week, targeting the Islamic Republic’s “shadow fleet” used to transport illicit petroleum for making rocket and missile fuel.
In a statement, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said it has penalized 29 vessels and their management firms for transporting massive amounts of Iranian petroleum, using deceptive shipping practices to evade international sanctions.
“As President Trump has said repeatedly, the United States will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” said John K. Hurley, Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. “Treasury will continue to deprive the regime of the petroleum revenue it uses to fund its military and weapons programs.”OFAC said the newly sanctioned vessels are part of a broader network Iran relies on to covertly export oil, primarily to clients in Asia. Tehran has been using tactics such as falsifying cargo documents, manipulating tracking systems, and frequently changing vessel ownership and management.Iran’s “shadow fleet” refers to a network of tankers and shipping companies that succeed in bypassing U.S. and international sanctions imposed on Tehran.
These sanctions were first expanded after Washington withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018, aiming to pressure Iran economically and limit its ability to finance nuclear, missile, and regional military activities.Since President Donald Trump resumed office, his administration has intensified enforcement against this shipping network. According to the Treasury, more than 180 vessels involved in transporting Iranian petroleum and petroleum products have been sanctioned during this period.
The sanctions involve increasing operational costs for exporters and significantly reducing the revenue Iran earns per barrel of oil sold. U.S. officials say the sustained sanctions campaign is intended to disrupt Iran’s oil sales and deter third parties from helping Iran circumvent the sanctions.
