Two weeks ago, the resumption of joint American-Israeli air strikes against Iran appeared to be imminent until Trump stated on Monday, May 18, that the leaders of the Gulf states had asked him to postpone the attack on Iran that Trump said he had ordered for the next day. Trump said the Gulf state leaders had told him that those now running Iran, facing the threat of another devastating American-Israeli attack, had become “more reasonable” and appeared to be more willing to agree to America’s demands concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the elimination of Iran’s nuclear threat.
Since then, various rumors have been flying about what concessions each side has already agreed to, and which issues remain to be resolved by negotiations during a new 60-day ceasefire that is supposed to follow the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran, which will outline the issues to be resolved by negotiation.
So far, Iranian leaders have said that they will only begin discussions with the U.S. over the fate of its nuclear weapons program after the Memorandum of Understanding has been signed by both sides, and a new 60-day ceasefire has begun.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz blockades by both sides will end, permitting a resumption of the normal shipments of 20 percent of the world’s oil supply to end the current price spikes. At that time, Iran expects to be permitted to begin selling its oil again to its foreign customers without having to fear running afoul of U.S. economic sanctions.
Trump Repeats His Nuclear Demands From Iran
However, on Monday, in a pair of announcements, President Trump once again spelled out his core demand for Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities to be permanently dismantled.
In a speech at the Memorial Day service at the Arlington National Cemetery, Trump promised once again that the U.S. will “never [permit Iran to] have a nuclear weapon.” He also paid tribute to the memory of the 13 American servicemen who lost their lives due to Iranian drone and missile strikes on military bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and the accidental crash of an American tanker refueling plane in Iraq, during the 40-day U.S. air war on Iran called Operation Epic Fury. Trump said, “These incredible men and women gave their lives to ensure that the world’s number one state sponsor of terror will never have a nuclear weapon.”
Later that same day, Trump posted a demand on Truth Social that all of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile must be either turned over to the United States or destroyed under the supervision of the nuclear weapons monitors of the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Commission (IAEA).
Reportedly, the points of agreement reached so far between Trump’s negotiators and Iran have not yet been approved (at press time) by Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Getting messages to or from Khamenei is said to be very difficult because he is in hiding at an unknown location with limited access to the outside world. Communication with him reportedly takes place only through a network of couriers. The purpose of such precautions is to make it more difficult for Israel to find him and launch another decapitation attack, like the one on February 28, which wounded Mojtaba and killed his father, who had served for the previous 37 years as Iran’s Islamic Supreme Leader, as well as several other members of the Khamenei family.
Because Iranian officials authorized to work with the Trump administration are reportedly struggling to communicate with Khamenei, any agreement on the Memorandum of Understanding reached with those Iranian officials is likely to face lengthy delays before being finalized. Then again, Iran is known to drag out negotiations and has pulled this stunt previously, even when communication with its leaders wasn’t a problem.
Trump has also said that he is not in any “rush” to sign an agreement with Iran and wants both sides “to take their time and get it right.”
Israel Is Shut Out of Trump’s Current Talks With Iran
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Binyomin Netanyahu admits that he has had very little influence on Trump regarding the U.S. demands in the Pakistani-mediated negotiations with Iran that resumed after the Gulf states convinced Trump to put off the attack he had approved two weeks ago. As a result, Israel’s friends and senior officials fear that the emerging “Memorandum of Understanding,” calling for a 60-day ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, will be “a bad agreement for Israel.”
Israeli officials are especially worried that Iran could emerge from the agreement as a “nuclear threshold state,” with the knowledge, infrastructure, and more than enough near weapons-grade enriched uranium to “break out” and complete a nuclear weapon in a very short period of time, while still under the protection of a ceasefire agreement with President Trump.
That concern is due to reports that, while Iran has agreed in principle to the removal of the 970 pounds of 60% highly enriched uranium and shutting down the enrichment of uranium and other aspects of its nuclear program, the details of those arrangements won’t be negotiated until after a new 60-day ceasefire is in place. That raises the danger that Iran will return to its familiar stalling tactics, designed to keep its nuclear threat intact.
Officially announcing the end of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran without an agreement in hand to fully dismantle Iran’s enrichment facilities and remove the enriched uranium from Iranian territory could actually allow Iran to covertly restore its nuclear capabilities without fear of an attack, because Iran will then be protected from Israel by an American diplomatic umbrella.
Israeli officials are also concerned that the initial “understanding” won’t prevent Iran from using the ceasefire to rapidly rebuild its ballistic missile and drone arsenals with which it will continue to threaten Israel and the rest of the region.
Israel Worried That Iran Will Emerge Strengthened
“Iran must not emerge strengthened,” a senior IDF official said. “They must not be allowed to come out stronger.”
Iran will also undoubtedly use some of the renewed income from the lifting of sanctions to rebuild its international terror network. Israel is particularly concerned by the renewed threat from Hezbollah, which has not been disarmed and is still actively attacking IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon and Israeli communities along the northern border, despite the ceasefire that Trump has proclaimed in Lebanon.
That ceasefire, which Trump recently extended by 45 days, originally limited the IDF’s permission to continue attacking Hezbollah aggressively to the narrow security zone that the IDF is still trying to clear inside Lebanon’s southern border. Otherwise, Trump asked Netanyahu to limit any further IDF attacks on Hezbollah in the rest of Lebanon, especially in Beirut, to “defensive” actions only.
As a result, Hezbollah has restarted its missile and drone attacks on Israeli communities along the northern border, which had forced the residents of those communities to abandon their homes during the post-October 7 Gaza war. That is why, “the agreement [Trump is now negotiating with Iran] must not include Lebanon,” a senior Israeli official said. Otherwise, he fears that the emerging deal with Iran could amount to “buying temporary quiet at the price of a long-term threat” to Israel’s security and the stability of the region.
In response to the latest Hezbollah spurt of drone attacks on northern Israeli communities, IDF Chief of Staff General Eyal Zamir urgently requested the government’s permission over the weekend to launch air strikes on Hezbollah buildings in Beirut, and an end to the restrictions that Trump had placed on IDF operations in the rest of northern Lebanon.
The latest Hezbollah attacks also prompted two elected Israeli officials to demand that any ceasefire restrictions on the IDF’s response to those attacks be lifted immediately.
Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that “for every explosive drone [Hezbollah launches against Israeli troops], ten buildings in Beirut should be brought down.” He also announced a new 2-billion-shekel Israeli government investment in the development of new, advanced anti-drone technologies.
Netanyahu nemesis Avigdor Liberman, chairman of the Yisroel Beitenu opposition party, said that it may only be a matter of time before Hezbollah’s explosive drones reach Tel Aviv and Yerushalayim. He also urged Israel to take more decisive measures to immediately defeat and disarm Hezbollah once and for all.
Trump Has Unleashed the IDF in Lebanon
It now appears that all three of these urgent requests for an end to the IDF’s mostly passive responses to Hezbollah’s attacks were promptly fulfilled with the adoption of a much more aggressive policy towards Hezbollah that Netanyahu announced to the Israeli people in a video released Monday. In that video, the prime minister said that “in recent weeks alone, our heroic fighters have eliminated over 600 [Hezbollah] terrorists,” and has now launched a major new operation against Hezbollah, with Trump’s permission. Netanyahu added that “we are not letting up. I said to [the commanders of the IDF] press the pedal [and hit them] even harder. . .
“What this demands from us now,” Netanyahu added, “is to intensify the strikes, to intensify the force [in our attack on Hezbollah]. We will hit them with everything we have.”
In the same video, Netanyahu said, “I want to commend the residents of the north. . . for showing resilience [in the face of the renewed Hezbollah attacks]. . . a resilience that inspires all of us.”
IDF Chief of Staff General Zamir wasted no time after getting the green light from Netanyahu to start attacking Hezbollah more vigorously. He went up to the headquarters of the IDF Northern Command on Sunday to approve plans for new military operations against Hezbollah deep inside Lebanon.
Zamir then declared in public remarks that, “The IDF continues to monitor regional developments, and is prepared to immediately return to high-intensity fighting to further weaken Iran’s terrorist regime and its capabilities. We will maintain our military readiness and operational flexibility for as long as required.”
Concerning IDF operations in Lebanon, Zamir said, “We are determined to deepen the damage to Hezbollah across all of its systems. The damage we are inflicting on the terrorist organization is systematic and consistent, and we will not let up.”
Zamir’s message was echoed Monday by General Rafi Milo, the chief of the IDF’s Northern Command, who said at a military ceremony in the Golan Heights city of Katzrin that, “On the Lebanese front, the Northern Command is at war [because] harm directed at [Israeli] civilians. . . is not a reality we can accept or treat as routine. . . [and that Israel] will not tolerate [attacks] on the home front.”
A senior U.S. official told The Times of Israel on Monday that, after Hezbollah refused to respect the ceasefire in Lebanon by ending its attacks on northern Israel, Trump permited the IDF to “respond accordingly.”
The American official noted that, over the previous eight days, Hezbollah had fired over a thousand drones and over 700 rockets at Israel, in an apparent bid to derail the current series of talks in Washington between Israeli and Lebanese government officials aimed at ending the current technical state of war and negotiating a permanent peace treaty between them.
He also said that Hezbollah sees those negotiations as “an existential threat [because] a successful ceasefire led by the government of Lebanon would strip Hezbollah of their power and their narrative. . .
“Hezbollah has ignored repeated requests to stop firing at Israel, including a recent ultimatum, [and that] Israel will never be expected [by the United States] to passively absorb attacks on its forces and civilians.”
Trump Official Reminds Hezbollah That Biden Is No Longer in Charge
The senior U.S. official concluded that Hezbollah was to blame for the violence in Lebanon today, because it “broke the ceasefire on March 2 and is now intent on denying the Lebanese people a path to peace and reconstruction.”
To emphasize President Trump’s recognition of the importance of Israel’s security needs, the U.S. official also reminded Hezbollah’s Iranian-controlled leadership that it is no longer dealing with “the Biden administration.”
Over a period of 48 hours beginning Sunday, Hezbollah launched a massive series of drone attacks on civilian areas in the north, harassing Metula, Hanita, and Shomera, and IDF soldiers in the south of Lebanon. According to an interview with the Kan public radio channel on Monday, a resident of Shomera said, “The moshav is in chaos. Children are locked in the kindergarten, drones are in the air, and live fire [can be heard].” But fortunately, no Israeli military or civilian casualties were reported due to the latest salvos of attacking Hezbollah drones.
A report by Israel’s I24News channel on Monday said that the IDF was going to take action to “change the [current situation] unequivocally,” by launching a major offensive against Hezbollah across Lebanon that it is calling Operation Arrows of Fire. To prepare Israeli civilians for the expected Hezbollah response, and following a recommendation by Israel’s Home Front Command, the mayors and regional council heads in communities along the northern border with Lebanon ordered the closure of all schools in northern Israel on Tuesday and until further notice, and instructed students to start attending their daily school lessons remotely.
The Israeli Home Command also publicly recommended Monday the evacuation of residents from Beirut, which had been spared attacks by the IDF since the day after the ceasefire that Trump announced for Lebanon in April went into full effect. The French AFP news service reported that, in response to the announcement by the Home Command, civilians living in the Hezbollah stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut began evacuating their homes Monday night in the expectation that their neighborhood would soon be attacked by Israeli warplanes.
The Al Jazeera news service reported Monday night that Iran had warned the U.S. that any Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in Beirut would threaten Iran’s continued participation in the Pakistani-sponsored talks to reach an agreement on the Memorandum of Understanding.
The IDF also announced late Monday that over the previous 24 hours, it had launched Operation Arrows of Fire by staging attacks on over 70 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including 10 strikes on Hezbollah command centers and weapons depots on the ancient coastal city of Tyre, about 50 miles south of Beirut. The IDF said that the other strikes had hit Hezbollah targets in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley region, as well as armed Hezbollah terrorists riding motorcycles in the areas of southern Lebanon where IDF troops were operating.
U.S. Forces Have Attacked Iranian Threats in the Strait of Hormuz
In addition, on Monday, the U.S. military’s Central Command announced that its forces had carried out what it called “defensive strikes” against small Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and against Iranian missile launch sites and forces it said were threatening U.S. troops. The Central Command statement added that the U.S. forces were “using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire [with Lebanon].”
Iran’s state-controlled news agencies also published unexplained reports of explosions heard during the day in the coastal city of Bandar Abbas and two other Iranian cities near the Strait of Hormuz, but the reports also said that the explosions were no cause for public alarm.
Meanwhile, President Trump has pushed back strongly at public complaints by prominent members of his Republican party, including Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, due to the concessions that Trump reportedly made to Iran in an effort to close a deal that would rapidly reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s strongest political motivation for reaching such an agreement is his desire to bring down the elevated cost of crude oil due to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as possible. The closure has resulted in a jump in the price of gas by more than 50% and threatens to reignite inflation. It has also undermined much of Trump’s support and popularity with the American people. Trump’s average job approval rating in national polls has fallen below 40% for the first time since he took office last year.
Senator Graham warned in a post on X that “If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as [a dominant] force requiring a diplomatic solution. . .
“[That would amount to] a major shift of the balance of power in the region, and over time will be a nightmare for Israel. Also, it makes one wonder why the war [was] started to begin with.”
Senator Cruz stated that he is “deeply concerned about what we are hearing about an Iran ‘deal,’ being pushed by some voices in the administration.”
“President Trump’s decision to strike Iran was the most consequential decision of his second term. He was right to do so, and we achieved extraordinary military results — including destroying all of their missiles and drones and sinking their entire navy,” Cruz continued.
“If the result of all that is to be an Iranian regime, still run by Islamists who chant ‘death to America,’ now receiving billions of dollars, being able to enrich uranium and develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then that outcome would be a disastrous mistake.
“[However], the details are still coming out, and I pray the early reports are wrong,” Cruz concluded.
Cruz’s concerns about “voices in the administration” pushing for a deal with Iran was an apparent reference to reports that Israeli officials believe that Trump’s chief negotiating envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were the driving force behind the scenes urging Trump to close a deal with Iran that would bring about a rapid regional stabilization, even though it would be at the cost of Israel’s long-term security.
Trump Pushes Back at the GOP Critics of His Decision to Resume Negotiations
Trump pushed back at the critics of his decision to push for a Memo of Understanding with Iran and the fears that it will leave Iran stronger than it was before the war began because of its ability to close the Straits of Hormuz again, and Israel militarily handicapped, unable to strike back effectively at Hezbollah or at Iran for fear of incurring Trump’s wrath for violating the ceasefires that he has imposed.
Trump wrote on Sunday, “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of cash, and a clear and open path to a nuclear weapon. Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet. So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about. Unlike those before me who should have solved this problem many years ago, I don’t make bad deals!”
Trump explained in a separate Truth Social post why, in 2018, he renounced the 2015 nuclear deal that Obama signed with Iran, and how the deal that Trump is trying to make with Iran now will be better.
“One of the worst deals ever made by our country was the Iran nuclear deal, put forth and signed into existence by Barack Hussein Obama and the rank amateurs of the Obama administration. It provided] a direct path to Iran developing a nuclear weapon. Not so with the [enriched uranium] transaction currently being negotiated with Iran by the Trump Administration — the exact opposite, in fact!
“The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal, [as] time is on our side.”
In an effort to reassure Israel and its supporters, Trump then declared that, “The [existing U.S. naval] blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.
“Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes! Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a nuclear weapon or bomb.”
Trump Pushes the Muslim States Asking for His Help With Iran to Join the Abraham Accords
“I would like to thank, thus far, all of the countries of the Middle East for their support and cooperation, which will be further enhanced and strengthened by their joining the nations of the historic Abraham Accords, and, who knows, perhaps the Islamic Republic of Iran would like to join, as well!
Trump’s decision to hold off on another attack last week, and launch instead another effort to reach an agreement with Iran, was also defended by his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who said that if Iran hoped to avoid renewed attacks by the U.S. and Israel designed finish off the destruction of both its military and its domestic economy, it would need to accept U.S. terms and comply with them.
“The idea that somehow this president, given everything he’s already proven he’s willing to do, is going to somehow agree to a deal that ultimately winds up putting Iran in a stronger position when it comes to nuclear ambitions is absurd,” Rubio suggested.
Trump posted his Sunday shortly after an unnamed “senior Trump administration official” told reporters that so far, the U.S. and Iran have agreed, in principle, that Iran will fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. ending its blockade on Iranian shipping. All further details of the agreement, including whether Iran would agree to permanently dismantle its nuclear program and give up its enriched uranium stockpile, remain unresolved, to be settled in further negotiations during the new ceasefire.
The unnamed U.S. official also conceded that the proposed Memorandum of Understanding could still founder if Iran goes back on its part of the agreement, which it has often done before. For example, it could refuse to turn over its uranium, or make unreasonable demands for economic benefits, such as the lifting of sanctions, before fulfilling its own commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding.
The U.S. official said that the agreement would provide the U.S. and global economy with some needed “breathing room.”
He also insisted that there have been no specific commitments yet, from the American side, on releasing Iran’s frozen assets in foreign banks, or on any initial lifting of American economic sanctions, despite Iran’s demands for upfront economic relief.
Key Details Missing From the Unfinished “Understanding”
The official also claimed that Iran has accepted, in principle, to give up all of its uranium, but how and when that happens remains subject to future negotiations.
He said the U.S. would provide Iran with sanctions relief only in response to and proportional to the steps Iran takes in restricting its nuclear program according to the terms of the final agreement.
In addition, the U.S. and Iran have not yet agreed on the time frame during which Iran would suspend its nuclear work. Trump has said he wants Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities for 20 years, while Iranian negotiators have said that they would only discuss a shorter suspension, and that instead of giving up its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, as Trump has demanded, Iran now wants to keep at least part of its stockpile after it has been diluted under regional supervision.
But for Israel, that is also unacceptable, because any agreement that leaves enriched uranium in Iran’s hands, even temporarily, would be seen as preserving Iran’s ability to stage a quick nuclear weapons breakout. From Israel’s perspective, even the continuation of low-level uranium enrichment on Iranian soil would still be problematic, because the same infrastructure and expertise needed for that process could be used to create the raw materials for making crude nuclear weapons as well.
The U.S. official also said that the number of years Iran is blocked from enriching uranium is less important than the enforcement mechanism that will prevent Iran from cheating on whatever agreement is finally reached.
The Missing Items in the Deal That Israel Is Most Worried About
However, the U.S. official said nothing about including any restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile threat or ending Iran’s support for Hezbollah as part of the negotiations for the Memorandum of Understanding. This is a serious problem from the Israeli military’s point of view, which considers Iran’s nuclear weapon development, its ballistic missile arsenal, its drone capabilities, and its network of proxy terrorists as integral parts of Iran’s larger strategic threat to Israel’s existence, on multiple fronts. That is why Israeli leaders worry that any deal with Trump that only addresses the nuclear issue, while putting off the others, risks leaving Israel to face a renewed threat from a rebuilt and rearmed Iran within just a few years.
The current mediation effort has been led by Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has gone to Tehran to meet with Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Israeli skeptics warn that these Iranian officials are not the final decision-makers in the Islamic regime. The real power in Iran is thought to lie in the hands of hardline senior officers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), such as its commander in chief, General Ahmad Vahidi. He, apparently, controls Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who, at least theoretically, has the final word on all security and strategic issues in Iran today.
Iran’s Controlling IRGC Hardliners Staying in the Background
The consensus assessment in Israel is that Iran is putting forth more moderate diplomatic figures to manage the public and international negotiations with U.S. negotiators, while the hard-liners who hold the real power to make the final decisions remain behind the scenes. That allows Iran to appear more pragmatic and reasonable, while avoiding the need to make any final concessions on the issues that matter most to them, until after the ceasefire they seek from Trump is in place.
The hardliners welcome the delay because they believe that time is on their side. The longer the conflict lasts, the greater will be the domestic pressure on the Trump administration from its political enemies to give in to Iran’s demands, rather than running the risk of going to war against Iran again.
Meanwhile, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported Sunday that Tehran is demanding sanctions relief and the unfreezing of its foreign assets early in the negotiation process, and would be willing to walk away, leaving the Memorandum of Understanding unsigned, if Trump doesn’t agree to these concessions.
The Influence of the Gulf States on Trump
The Gulf Arab states that intervened last week with Trump and pleaded for him to postpone his planned attack on Iran, are eager to avoid further Iranian attacks on their energy facilities and to see the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, enabling them to resume their oil exports.
But the Gulf states are reportedly uncomfortable with the prospect that any deal with Iran would leave it in effective control of the strait. Iran may also be emboldened to use military threats once again to intimidate its neighboring Persian Gulf states, after the U.S. naval and air armadas, which Trump has deployed in the region to support another attack on Iran, move on.
Even the global oil markets, which are eager to see a quick end to the U.S. and Iranian blockades halting tanker traffic from the Persian Gulf, are hungry for more details about how quickly the flow of crude oil can be resumed, and whether Iran will be left in a position to block the strategic waterway again in the future, leading to more disruptions of the global energy market.
Iran Is Strengthened By Its Proven Ability To Shut Down The Persian Gulf
H.A. Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based military think tank, told the Wall Street Journal that no matter how the current negotiations turn out, “Iran enters the postwar period with leverage it didn’t have before, because Hormuz is now an established [Iranian] bargaining chip. The major risk for Gulf Arab states is that this leaves [the regime in] Tehran feeling emboldened and thus interested in making itself more, not less, of a nuisance to [the] regional order.”
Israeli Prime Minister Binyomin Netanyahu is now also under increased political pressure at home, due to Trump’s apparent willingness to cut a deal that fails to prevent Iran from re-establishing its long-range ballistic missile threat.
That threat has become much more immediate due to a report by Channel 12 news, based upon an updated American intelligence assessment, which claims that Iran has already restarted its mass production of long-range drones, ballistic missiles, and their launchers, using improvised underground factories, and assistance from Russia and China.
Iran Has Rebuilt Its Ballistic Missile Threat Much Faster Than Israel Expected
Based upon that assessment, Israeli defense officials are now said to believe that Iran could rebuild its previous drone manufacturing capabilities within a few months and significantly ramp up its ballistic missile production rate within about a year, or possibly sooner.
Netanyahu was also being criticized for agreeing to Trump’s initial ceasefire restrictions on IDF attempts to stop Hezbollah’s missile and drone attacks on Israeli troops inside Lebanon, and Israeli civilians living along the northern border. Trump lifted those restrictions over the weekend, at Israel’s request, and gave Netanyahu a green light to order a new, all-out IDF assault on Hezbollah.
Netanyahu is currently facing a tough fight to win another term as prime minister in the next Knesset election, which will take place no later than this October. His position was further compromised by Trump’s statement to reporters last week following a telephone conversation with the Israeli prime minister that Netanyahu is “a very good man. He’ll do whatever I want him to do.”
Netanyahu’s Tied to Trump’s Decisions
Because Netanyahu has tied himself so closely to Trump and has taken the political credit for staging joint attacks with the U.S. against Iran during the two wars over the past year, he is now being blamed for enabling Trump to negotiate a deal with Iran at the expense of Israel’s security.
His critics blame Netanyahu for allowing Trump to bully him into agreeing to a ceasefire in Gaza seven months ago before the IDF’s destruction of Hamas’ military capabilities in Gaza was completed. They also fault Netanyahu for accepting a Trump-ordered ceasefire in Lebanon.
To defend himself against those accusations, Netanyahu told the Israeli people Sunday, “I spoke last night with President Trump about the Memorandum of Understanding to reopen the Straits of Hormuz and the upcoming negotiations toward a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.
“I expressed my deep appreciation to President Trump for his unwavering commitment to Israel’s security, including during Operation Roaring Lion and Epic Fury [the war that was started by the joint February 28 air strikes], when American and Israeli forces fought shoulder to shoulder against the Iranian threat.
Netanyahu then declared that, “President Trump and I agreed that any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear danger. That means dismantling Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites and removing its enriched nuclear material from its territory.”
In addition, Netanyahu said that “President Trump also reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself against threats on every front, including Lebanon,” even though Iran has been pushing to extend the ceasefire agreement in the Memorandum of Understanding to end the war the IDF has been fighting against Hezbollah.
Netanyahu insisted that “The partnership between us and our two countries has been proven on the battlefield and has never been stronger.
“My policy, like President Trump’s, remains unchanged: Iran will not have nuclear weapons.”
However, Netanyahu was unable to say that he got a commitment from Trump to prevent Iran from re-establishing its ballistic missile threat. Nor did he get a promise from Trump to maintain the sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy, and whose loosening would strengthen the new hardline leadership of the Islamic regime, which is still dedicated to Israel’s destruction.
Netanyahu Admits His Influence On Trump’s Policies Has Diminished
Several media reports say that Netanyahu has admitted privately to his advisors that he has had little ability to influence President Trump’s decisions in his current negotiations with Iran, even though they have had at least three phone conversations over the past week. One of his advisors reportedly said that Netanyahu has told him he “has no maneuver to influence the [American] president right now.”
A Reuters report confirmed that the negotiations are focusing on an agreement in principle on the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz first, followed by negotiations on the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, including its uranium enrichment efforts and its stockpile of uranium. Much of that material is believed to be buried under the rubble of the underground nuclear site at Isfahan, which was attacked and believed largely destroyed last June by 15-ton bunker-busting bombs dropped by American B-2 stealth bombers.
The report also said that even though Trump and Netanyahu agreed on the need to start the war against Iran by launching a joint air attack on February 28 that killed its Supreme Leader and many other senior Islamic regime leaders, “Israeli and U.S. war objectives have diverged since then, with the U.S. focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.”
In an interview on CBS TV in early May, Netanyahu stressed that “there’s [more] work to be done,” to ensure the removal of enriched uranium from Iran, an end to its support for terrorist proxies like Hezbollah, and stopping its mass production of long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel and other targets more than 1,200 miles away.
Nevertheless, in a post on Monday, Trump reported that, “Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will only be a great deal for all or no deal at all — back to the battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before — and nobody wants that!”
Trump’s Call to Muslim States to Join the Abraham Accords
Trump added, in an apparent effort to ease the political pressure on Netanyahu, that, “During my discussions on Saturday with President Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, of Saudi Arabia; Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, of The United Arab Emirates; Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, and Minister Ali al-Thawadi, of Qatar; Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, of Pakistan; President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, of Turkey; President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, of Egypt; King Abdullah II, of Jordan, and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, of Bahrain, I stated that, after all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle together, it should be mandatory that all of these countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords. Those countries discussed are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (already a member!), Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain (already a member!).”
Trump conceded that, “It may be possible that one or two have a reason for not doing so, and that will be accepted, but most should be ready, willing, and able to make this settlement with Iran a far more historic event than it would otherwise be.”
He stated that the Abraham Accords, which were negotiated by his representatives and signed during his first term as president, “have proven to be, for the countries involved (the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan), a financial, economic, and social boom, even during this time of conflict and war, with the current Members never even suggesting leaving, or taking so much as even a pause. The reason for this is that the Abraham Accords have been great for them and will be even better for everybody, and bring true power, strength, and peace to the Middle East for the first time in 5,000 years. It will be a document respected like no other that has ever been signed, anywhere in the world. Its level of importance and prestige will be unparalleled!”
Trump added that he expected the process to start “with the immediate signing [of the Abraham Accords] by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and everybody else should follow suit. If they don’t, they should not be part of this deal [with Iran] because it shows bad intentions.”
Trump’s Most Unrealistic Peace Proposal Yet
Trump suggested an extremely unrealistic possibility, that Iran’s current Islamic regime would also agree to sign the Abraham Accords with Israel.
“In speaking to numerous of the great leaders mentioned above,” Trump said, “they would be honored, as soon as our document is signed, to have the Islamic Republic of Iran as part of the Abraham Accords. Wow, now that would be something special!
“This will be the most important deal that any of these great, but always in conflict, countries will ever sign. Nothing in the past, or in the future, will surpass it. Therefore, I am mandatorily requesting that all countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords, and that, if Iran signs its agreement with me, as President of the United States of America, it would be an honor to have them also be part of this unparalleled world coalition. The Middle East would be united, powerful, and economically strong, like perhaps no other area, anywhere in the world!
“By copy of this truth,” Trump said, in closing his Truth Social post, “I am asking my representatives to begin, and successfully complete, the process of signing these countries into the already historic Abraham Accords.”
Nevertheless, American officials are still being cautious about reaching an agreement on a Memorandum of Understanding, given the current distance between the American and Iranian positions on a range of issues, as well as lingering doubts about the authority of Iran’s negotiators to make any binding commitments that require significant concessions without the new Supreme Leader’s express approval.
The Saudis and Pakistan Reject Trump’s Call to Sign the Abraham Accord
Saudi Arabia was quick to reject Trump’s call for them to join the Abraham Accords immediately by issuing a statement declaring that it will only agree to normalize relations with Israel after an “irreversible pathway” to Palestinian statehood has been established.
Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Asif, also rejected President Trump’s call for the Arab and Muslim states seeking to avoid another U.S. war against Iran to join as signatories to the Abraham Accords, revealing his country’s deep, ideologically based hatred of Israel, which should have disqualified it from serving as the ostensibly neutral mediator of the current negotiations.
“Personally, I don’t think we should join any such accord that clashes with our fundamental ideologies,” Asif said.
“How will you sit down with those people [Israeli leaders] whose word cannot be trusted even for a single day?”
“We have a very clear stance that this is not acceptable to us,” the Pakistani defense minister added, “and secondly, we are the only country whose passports don’t [ever] include Israel’s name.”
If the current Pakistani-moderated negotiations do break down, Trump has said that a detailed American attack plan is already in place and ready to be implemented. It will attack Iran’s remaining military capabilities, as well as the missiles and missile launchers that Iran has recovered from the sites that were attacked during the nearly six weeks of air strikes that followed the initial February 28 attack.
What The Next U.S.-Israeli Attack On Iran Might Look Like
According to a Ynet analysis by Ron Ben-Yishai, a new U.S. air campaign is also expected to focus on Iran’s economic and infrastructure targets that had previously been spared. These include Iran’s energy infrastructure, including oil and gas production, transportation, refining and processing facilities, as well as electricity generation, which will impact Iran’s civilian population.
The same Ynet analysis predicts that the next round of Israeli air strikes will continue to concentrate on strategic and military targets, including Iran’s remaining ballistic missile facilities, drone production sites, as well as the steel plants and petrochemical industries that are also vital to Iran’s continued weapons production capabilities.
Israeli military planners are also reportedly making a key distinction between Iran’s large remaining arsenal of short-range missiles, which primarily threaten the nearby Gulf states and the American military bases located in them, and Iran’s longer-range missile arsenal, a significant portion of which was either destroyed during the recent six-week air war or is still trapped in the rubble of collapsed underground launch sites.
Iran No Longer Has Enough Missiles For A Saturation Attack On Israel
Many of Iran’s surviving missile production sites, launch infrastructure, and command networks have been damaged, and many of the trained personnel who know how to operate them have been killed. That means that although Iran’s remaining long-range missiles can still reach Israel, there are not enough of them left for Iran to launch saturation attacks, using dozens of rockets simultaneously launched at the same target, necessary to overwhelm Israel’s highly effective missile defenses.
But even if the new Israeli attack plan does eliminate most of what remains of Iranian long-range missile capability, Iran would still be able to retaliate indirectly by using its short-range weapons to resume the destruction of the energy production facilities of its Persian Gulf neighbors, including Saudi Arabia. The leaders of those states would then try to pressure President Trump to intervene once again, like they did last week. They would ask Trump to demand that Netanyahu order the IDF to stop its attacks on Iran, a demand that the Israeli prime minister could not afford to refuse.
For that reason, the preferred outcome for Israel at this point is not a decision by Trump to resume the joint U.S.-Israeli air strikes against Iran, which still might not succeed in forcing Iran’s new leaders to give in to U.S. and Israeli demands, or to agree to the proposed Memorandum of Understanding, which would re-open the Strait of Hormuz, but likely leave too many of the key issues with Iran still unresolved.
Israel Might Prefer Trump To Continue The Current Status Quo
Instead, it would be more desirable for Israel if Trump were to continue his campaign of maximum economic, military, and diplomatic pressure on Iran until its new hardline leaders are more willing to accept a much more comprehensive peace agreement that meets all of American and Israeli security demands. That includes Iran giving up its entire stockpile of enriched uranium and ending its enrichment of uranium permanently. It also requires placing definite range and numerical limits on Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones and cutting off Iran’s support for its regional terrorist proxies, beginning with Hezbollah and Hamas.
Meanwhile, according to an eye-opening Jerusalem Post opinion piece, written by Washington-based counterterrorism expert Erfan Fard, “sources close to the White House say Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with the stalled [negotiations over the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran]. . . “and is now [once again] weighing the option of a ‘decisive final military operation’ as a way to end the crisis.”
According to Fard, part of the problem with the current negotiations is that “The United States [is] still [talking with] the Islamic Republic’s ‘diplomatic façade,’ while real authority [in Iran today] remains concentrated within the ideological-security structure of the IRGC.” In addition, the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his late father as Iran’s new Supreme Leader, was arranged by the leadership of the IRGC, because it controls him.
How The IRGC Gained Control Over Iran
During the former Supreme Leader’s 37-year rule, he permitted the leadership of the IRGC to gather political power and control over Iran’s key economic and military institutions. Eventually, the IRGC reduced Iran’s elected government officials to powerless puppet leaders, while using the religious authority and prestige of Iran’s Islamic Supreme Leader to legitimize their de facto rule over the country.
Fard says that, “The IRGC did not merely manufacture [Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s] symbolic leader. It reconstructed command centers, intelligence networks, financial structures, and security command systems while simultaneously shaping the broader architecture of Iran’s future order.”
Fard writes that, “The IRGC is no longer merely a military force. It has evolved into an ideological army, an economic empire, a vast network of intelligence organizations, an internal security apparatus, and the Mafia-like engine driving regional terrorism.”
Only now has it become apparent that Iran is being ruled by an IRGC military junta, which has long hidden behind a Shiite Islamic theocracy, along with a sham elected parliament and president.
Has Trump Been Wasting Time by Negotiating With the Wrong Iranians?
Fard accuses the Trump administration of wasting its time by negotiating with Iranian government officials who are powerless political puppets and are not authorized to make any concessions on behalf of Iran’s true rulers.
He argues that the crucial point the Trump administration should keep in mind is that “The IRGC no longer protects [Iran’s governing] system. It has become the system.”
In addition, Fard warns that IRGC’s leaders, who are actually ruling Iran from behind the scenes with an iron hand, are dedicated, first and foremost, to remaining in power, and they really don’t care how much that may ultimately cost their country.
